one can use Bayes theorem to evaluate the conditional election prospects of various Presidential candidates for 2008.If you have read my blog for any amount of time you would realize that I'm not much of an Obama fan. Though, to be fair, he is one of the better Democratic politicians currently in Congress.
Based on the most recent transaction prices, here is what you learn about the conditional probabilities:
Obama 88 percent
The market suggests that Obama would be the strongest candidate if nominated.
He is a hack that will sell out any ideal in order to get elected, which, again to be fair, is what all politicians do. Unfortunately, he plays the populist card a bit too strong for my tastes.