Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Uncertainty in Concensus

I don't frequently link to a post and say "How Great" with little to add, but this is going to be one of those times.

The always great, Roger Pielke Jr has a great article on Consessus in the Climate Change debate. Most telling, for me, was this translation of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement.
In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Which he translates (using standardized IPCC verbiage guidlines) thusly:
Relevant IPCC Lead Authors judge that over the past 50 years that the majority of observed warming has been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations with between 64% and 90% certainty.
The whole post is a must read, though the comments have started to degenerate into personal attacks instead of substantive discussion (typically a hallmark of Prometheus).

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